“El sí ganó.”
Posted by ddelaney on February 16, 2009
I’ve witnessed quite a few consequential political moments in my months here in Venezuela—from the November 23rd elections here to the election of President Obama at home—and today I am the bystander of another one. Today, “yes won.” That is to say, the referendum to lift term limits has been passed. Chavez can run for re-election in 2012. 2012? Yes, in February of 2009, Hugo Chavez Frias is seeking to secure power for many years to come. And he’s still three years from those elections.
For weeks, they have been predicting an extremely tight vote. Most polls showed the “no” winning, in some cases, by six or so percentage points. I was and was not surprised to see on the news here at about 9:30pm that Chavez won. That is to say, I was surprised by the hour, not that he won. “El sí ganó.” Considering that it took many more hours for the results of November’s elections to come out, I thought I wouldn’t know until morning. And yet, I read and watch the news to find that the initial count put a supposed 80% of voters with “yes” while a mere 20% with “no.” The numbers have since been adjusted to say that 54% or so voted yes. I write this while watching the crowds at the president’s Miraflores palace in Caracas chant, “Uh ah Chavez no se va.” A man in the audience thrusts up above the crowd a small boy dressed up like Chavez; he even bears a slight resemblance, especially with the red beret. Fireworks are going off here in Maracaibo. I write this with a tone of skeptism, too. Some here will question if the numbers reflect the real vote at all. I don’t think we’ll ever know.
I write this as my heart sinks a little for Venezuela. I have not emerged as a chavista nor necessarily a staunch supporter of the opposition. I don’t really believe it to be my place to do so. However, political persuasions aside, I do not believe that lifting term limits is a wise move in this country, now or ever. I am disappointed. But, to be honest, a part of me is slightly relieved. Just last week or so, he said publicly that the constitution would allow him to hold multiple referendum votes in the future if this did not pass today. Therefore, if “no” had won, I foresaw more votes. In an increasingly polarized country, which was perhaps never clearer than in the campaigns leading up to this vote, I feared future votes.
Then again, when pushed to make a prediction, I thought he would win. I cannot imagine why he would push through a referendum essentially for the second time, if he didn’t think he would win. He didn’t take the first defeat well in 2007. I also could not imagine him taking a defeat well today, either. And after not being fully convinced that voting here is a clean process, I figured he would win, one way or another. For now, I’ll leave you all with this, and wait for the flurry of commentary and such that will emerge tomorrow.
Strangely enough, I will be traveling to Chavez’s birthplace, Barinas, this Thursday evening. I’m off on a trip to los llanos, the plains, here with some other Fulbighters. From Barinas, we will arrive at a ranch-like family-run wildlife safari cottage. Should be interesting!
